Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 1.996516 2.112085 2.233455 2.370875 2.522704 2.685970 2.875675
2025-08-10 1.813520 1.971938 2.146151 2.353563 2.595948 2.873024 3.217852
2025-08-17 1.689071 1.870137 2.075485 2.328596 2.636497 3.004846 3.488450
2025-08-24 1.593744 1.789019 2.015787 2.303038 2.663981 3.112456 3.729104
2025-08-31 1.529644 1.737673 1.984315 2.304447 2.718793 3.252229 4.019297
2025-09-07 1.481200 1.700590 1.965587 2.317279 2.785195 3.408371 4.344945
2025-09-14 1.418904 1.642179 1.915709 2.285013 2.787114 3.474266 4.545375
2025-09-21 1.362552 1.587904 1.867388 2.250460 2.781421 3.526233 4.727324
2025-09-28 1.309485 1.535094 1.817860 2.210526 2.764076 3.557872 4.878274
2025-10-05 1.290695 1.524898 1.822564 2.243226 2.850057 3.747235 5.306940
2025-10-12 1.273921 1.516190 1.828218 2.276672 2.938315 3.946801 5.781576
2025-10-19 1.255865 1.504754 1.829229 2.302918 3.016763 4.137170 6.269698
2025-10-26 1.223102 1.473060 1.802001 2.288091 3.032984 4.230003 6.595103
2025-11-02 1.192526 1.443194 1.775998 2.273526 3.048316 4.322390 6.935931
2025-11-09 1.160999 1.410881 1.745178 2.249988 3.047297 4.385581 7.226478
2025-11-16 1.131254 1.379979 1.715072 2.225824 3.043255 4.442299 7.512694
2025-11-23 1.111469 1.362024 1.702431 2.227157 3.080600 4.576923 8.002686
2025-11-30 1.096202 1.349724 1.697217 2.239291 3.136314 4.750937 8.627683
2025-12-07 1.068864 1.319791 1.665543 2.208777 3.117180 4.778936 8.890615
2025-12-14 1.042235 1.290153 1.633367 2.176082 3.092233 4.793045 9.120717
2025-12-21 1.015347 1.259500 1.598825 2.138275 3.056178 4.781699 9.279676
2025-12-28 1.009485 1.258332 1.607349 2.169235 3.143482 5.030851 10.254054
2026-01-04 1.004035 1.257500 1.616189 2.200885 3.234003 5.298029 11.387321